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How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions-and the Art of Knowing When Not To. Kit Yates

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ISBN: 9781541604933 | 448 pages | 12 Mb

• How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions-and the Art of Knowing When Not To
• Kit Yates
• Page: 448
• Format: pdf, ePub, fb2, mobi
• ISBN: 9781541604933
• Publisher: Basic Books

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A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right  How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.     From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.    This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct. 

Kit Yates: Books
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To · How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making 
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making
How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To (Audio Download): Kit Yates, Kit Yates, 
The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing
How to Expect the Unexpected : The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To.
The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art
For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our 
The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art
In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.
How to Expect the Unexpected Audiobook by Kit Yates
Listen to "How to Expect the Unexpected The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To" by Kit Yates available from Rakuten Kobo.
How can we navigate an unpredictable world? The answer
In How to Expect the Unexpected: the Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To, Kit Yates explores these biases and 

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